Connecticut Economic Outlook - September 2013
September 18, 2013:
This quarter’s conventional CCEA analysis finds indications that the listless economic recovery in Connecticut is
slowly strengthening, with performance approaching national growth rates. Looking ahead eight business quarters,
this Outlook details three scenarios: one based on housing permits, a second that replaces housing permits with
the current low prime bank rate, and a third built on an industry sector analysis.
To achieve its full potential during this period of improving indicators, the state could profitably
implement some of its approved but unissued bonding to fund strategic investments. As the theoretical case
is stronger for the second CCEA scenario, the low bank rate, CCEA uses it in conjunction with forward looking statements
from the State Treasurer regarding the administration’s intentions to borrow and (presumably) expend funds.
Governmental capital expenditures are assumed to be proportional among industries designated in Bond Commission
approvals over the first half of this forecast period.
The optimum use of these approved investments will depend on implementation that
acknowledges which projects have the potential to extend short- and long-term benefits, a perspective securable through a
uniform scoring process.
Read the Full September Outlook
See prevous reports in this Connecticut Quarterly Forecasts series.
This Hotspot and Density Analysis, presented to Connecticut Clean Energy Finance & Investment Authority,
uses the spatial weighted approach known as “Getis-Ord Statistics” at Census Block Group
levels to identify physical and socioeconomic conditions that limit the adoption of residential solar
roof-top photovoltaic (PV) in Connecticut. Our findings show that higher per-thousands adoption rates of
residential solar roof-top cluster in rural areas. (Completed February 2012)
Prepared by Comeback America Initiative and CCEA
as a discussion guide, this report presents both the strengths and weaknesses of
Connecticut's financial condition and competitive position relative to other states in the nation.
Thus, even while state budgets may have been balanced, as required by law, in fact its obligations have exceeded revenues for
several years, complicated by bonded debt and unfunded initiatives.
In the most recent two decades, the Connecticut economy has relied on its primary financial services and manufacturing
industries, without stepping up to emerging changes in the global workplace. Private sector business growth is the
best key to improved economic growth for Connecticut citizens and for its state government.
By using dynamic regression analysis and BLS data starting from 1990,
CCEA was able to determine that 7,103 private sector job-years may be lost (and attributable to) Hurricane Sandy,
between November 2012 and December 2014, of which roughly half or 3,551 job losses, can be expected to be in small businesses..
CCEA, under contract with the Connecticut Association for Community Action
provided research, analysis and a discussion framework for policy recommendations in this Connecticut Poverty Report.
Links to Poverty Report Data Sets and Interactive Maps are now (May 2013) available on the CAFCA website.